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In the mid's, Ehrlich started giving public lectures about the population problem. One caught the attention of David Brower, then executive director of the Sierra Club, who led him to Ballantine Books.
Rushing to publish his message in time for the Presidential election, Ehrlich produced what may be the all-time ecological best seller, "The Population Bomb.
It was "The Tonight Show" that made him and his book famous. As Ehrlich remembers it, Joan Rivers went on first, telling jokes about her honeymoon night "I said, 'Turn off the lights.
Then there was a starlet whose one-word answers made things so awkward that Ehrlich was rushed on early to rescue Johnny Carson.
Ehrlich has been deluged ever since with requests for lectures, interviews and opinions. He is a rare hybrid: the academic who keeps his professional reputation intact while pleasing the masses.
Scientists praise his papers on butterflies and textbooks on ecology; talk-show hosts tout his popular books and love his affably blunt style.
He has never been one to mince words or hedge predictions. In the 's the world will undergo famines -- hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.
Six years later, in a book he wrote with his wife, "The End of Affluence," he raised the death toll. The book told of a "nutritional disaster that seems likely to overtake humanity in the 's or, at the latest, the 's.
Due to a combination of ignorance, greed and callousness, a situation has been created that could lead to a billion or more people starving to death.
There may be minor fluctuations in food prices, but the overall trend will be up. Ehrlich was right about one thing: the world's population did grow.
It is now 5. The predicted rise in the world death rate has yet to materialize -- infant mortality has declined and life expectancy has increased, most dramatically in the third world.
There have been famines in countries afflicted by war, drought and disastrous agricultural policies, but the number of people affected by famines has been declining steadily during the past three decades.
In fact, the number is much lower than it was during the same decades of the last century, even though the world's population is much larger.
Experts argue about how much hunger remains in the world, but they generally agree that the average person in the third world is better nourished today than in Food production has increased faster than population since the publication of "The Population Bomb," just as it has since the books of Vogt, Osborn and Malthus.
Perhaps the best way to see what has happened to food prices -- and to get a glimpse of the Malthusian mind-set -- is to consider a graph from Lester R.
Brown, another widely quoted doomster. Brown has long been the chief source for Ehrlich and other ecologists on trends in agriculture -- "the best person in the country on the subject" in Ehrlich's words.
Brown is the president of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington, which makes news each year with what it calls the world's most widely used public-policy document, its "State of the World" report.
This year's report includes a graph, below, of grain prices that is interesting for a couple of reasons: [ GRAPH: "World Wheat and Rice Prices, ] Consider, first of all, how it compares with Brown's predictions of a decade ago.
He was pessimistic then for the same reasons that Ehrlich, Vogt and Osborn had been: rising population, vanishing topsoil, the growing dependence on "non-sustainable" uses of irrigation, fertilizer, pesticides.
The question no longer seems to be whether they will rise but how much. Now consider how Brown analyzes this data. In a chapter titled "The Illusion of Progress" in this year's report, he focuses not on the long-term trend but on the blips in the graph in and -- when prices rose because of factors like drought and a United States Government program that took farmland out of production.
Looking ahead to the 's, Brown writes, "The first concrete economic indication of broad-based environmental deterioration now seems likely to be rising grain prices.
We are barely into the 's, but so far Brown's poor track record is intact. Grain prices have plummeted since he published his prediction at the start of the year.
The blips in the late 's caused farmers to do what they always do when prices rise: plant more crops. The price of wheat has fallen by more than 40 percent in the past year, and if you plotted it on that graph, it would be at yet another all-time low.
Once again Malthus's day of reckoning will have to be rescheduled. It was during the Earth Day furor two decades ago. Simon was sitting at home in Urbana, Ill.
But what could I do? Go talk to five people? Here was a guy reaching a vast audience, leading this juggernaut of environmentalist hysteria, and I felt utterly helpless.
At this point, Simon was still in the early stages of Cornucopianism. He had started out as a Malthusian.
After studying psychology at Harvard University and receiving a doctorate in business economics from the University of Chicago, he joined the faculty at the University of Illinois in He was an expert in mail-order marketing -- his book on the topic sold , copies, more than any he has written since -- and was looking for something else to do when he heard the grim predictions about overpopulation.
In the late 's he began publishing papers on using marketing tools and economic incentives to persuade women to have fewer babies.
But then he came across work by economists showing that countries with rapid population growth were not suffering more than other countries.
In fact, many were doing better. He also came across a book, "Scarcity and Growth," published in with the help of Resources for the Future, a conservation group dominated by economists.
The book was a revelation to him: it provided the empirical foundations of Cornucopianism. The authors, Harold J. Barnett and Chandler Morse, tracked the price of natural resources back to and found that the price of virtually everything had fallen.
The average worker today could buy more coal with an hour's pay than he could when "The Coal Question" was published in the last century, just as he could buy more metals and more food.
Things were actually getting less scarce as population grew. The evidence inspired the boomster view of history, which was then refined by Simon and others, like Charles Maurice and Charles W.
They found new supplies or practiced conservation. They managed to recycle without the benefit of government policies or moral exhortations from Greenpeace.
Stone Age tribes in areas short of flint learned to resharpen their tools instead of discarding them as tribes did in flint-rich areas.
Often the temporary scarcity led to a much better substitute. The Greeks' great transition from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age 3, years ago, according to Maurice and Smithson, was inspired by a disruption of trade due to wars in the eastern Mediterranean.
The disruption produced a shortage of the tin needed to make bronze, and the Greeks responded to the bronze crisis by starting to use iron.
Similarly, timber shortages in 16th-century Britain ushered in the age of coal; the scarcity of whale oil around led to the first oil well in Temporary shortages do occur, but Cornucopians argue that as long as government doesn't interfere -- by mandating conservation or setting the sort of price controls that produced America's gas lines of the 's -- people will find alternatives that turn out to be better.
Yes, you read correctly," Simon wrote in his manifesto, "The Ultimate Resource. This idea marked the crucial difference between Simon and Ehrlich, and between economists and ecologists: the view of the world not as an closed ecosystem but as an flexible marketplace.
The concept of carrying capacity might make sense in discussing Ehrlich's butterflies or Vogt's "Gadarene swine," but Simon rejected animal analogies.
He liked to quote the 19th-century economist Henry George: "Both the jayhawk and the man eat chickens, but the more jayhawks, the fewer chickens, while the more men, the more chickens.
Of course, men can also produce more pollution than jayhawks, and Simon conceded that the marketplace did need some regulation. But he insisted that environmental crises were being exaggerated.
He and another leading boomster, Herman Kahn, edited a book in , "The Resourceful Earth," rebutting the gloomy forecasts of the Government's "Global Report" prepared under President Carter.
Their book was replete with graphs showing that, by most measures, America's air and water had been getting cleaner for decades, thanks partly to greater affluence richer societies can afford to pay for pollution controls like sewage treatment and partly to the progress of technology the pollution from cars today in New York City is nothing compared to the soot from coal-burning furnaces and the solid waste from horses at the turn of the century.
Simon asserted that innovations would take care of new forms of pollution, and he set about disputing the various alarming estimates of tropical deforestation, species extinction, eroding topsoil, paved-over farmland and declining fisheries.
But why don't the doomsayers see that, in the aggregate, things are getting better? Why do they always think we're at a turning point -- or at the end of the road?
They deny our creative powers for solutions. It's only because we used those powers so well in the past that we can afford to worry about things like losing species and wetlands.
Until we got so rich and healthy and productive at agriculture, a wetland was a swamp with malarial mosquitoes that you had to drain so you could have cropland to feed your family.
Simon's fiercest battle has been against Paul Ehrlich's idea that the world has too many people. The two have never debated directly -- Ehrlich has always refused, saying that Simon is a "fringe character" -- but they have lambasted each other in scholarly journal articles with titles like "An Economist in Wonderland" and "Paul Ehrlich Saying It Is So Doesn't Make It So.
But he maintains that there are long-term benefits when those children become productive, resourceful adults. He has supported making abortion and family-planning services available to women to give them more freedom, but he has vehemently opposed programs that tell people how many children to have.
He attacked Ehrlich for suggesting that governments should consider using coercion to limit family size and for endorsing the startling idea that the United States should consider cutting off food aid to countries that refuse to control population growth.
Among academics, Simon seems to be gaining in the debate. Many scientists are still uncomfortable with his sweeping optimism about the future -- there is no guarantee, after all, that past trends will continue -- and most population experts are not sure that the current rate of population growth in the third world is going to bring the long-term benefits predicted by Simon.
But the consensus has been shifting against Ehrlich's idea of population growth as the great evil. Simon's work helped prompt the National Academy of Sciences to prepare a report, which noted that there was no clear evidence that population growth makes countries poorer.
It concluded that slower population growth would probably benefit third world countries, but argued that other factors, like a country's economic structure and political institutions, were much more important to social well-being.
The report opposed the notion of using government coercion to control family size. It noted that most experts expected the world food situation to continue improving, and it concluded that, for the foreseeable future, "the scarcity of exhaustible resources is at most a minor constraint on economic growth.
But Simon is still far behind when it comes to winning over the general public. This past Earth Day he did not fare much better than he did in Ehrlich was still the one all over national television.
In the weeks leading up to Earth Day in April, Ehrlich did spots for the "Today" show and appeared on other programs promoting his new book, "The Population Explosion," which declares that "the population bomb has detonated.
It was a scene to make Cornucopians wonder if the ancient Greeks who described Cassandra's curse -- fated to be always right but never heeded -- had gotten it precisely backward.
The crowd of more than , applauded heartily after Ehrlich told them that population growth could produce a world in which their grandchildren would endure food riots in the streets of America.
Ehrlich did not mention Simon by name, although he did refer to him at another event that Earth Day weekend, a symposium of ecologists inside the domed auditorium of the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History.
The symposium was devoted to the question of natural resources -- "Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions" -- and Ehrlich talked about humanity squandering irreplaceable capital.
He praised a colleague who had advocated the idea of governments' stopping economic growth by setting quotas on the amount of resources that could be used each year.
Ehrlich criticized the shortsightedness of economists, and he got a laugh when he alluded to Simon's book: "The ultimate resource -- the one thing we'll never run out of is imbeciles.
That same day Simon spoke only a block away in a small, low-ceilinged conference room at another Earth Day symposium.
It was sponsored by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a group that explores free-market solutions to environmental problems.
In an intense, quiet voice, Simon declared that the Malthusians "must either turn a blind eye to the scientifc evidence or be blatantly dishonest intellectually.
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